AR Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AR's backwardation and 77.9% yearly price increase suggest continued bullish momentum. Implied volatility backwardation indicates strong short-term interest HeliumHelium.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility and 1% trading volume percentile raise stability concerns. Historical mean reversion might counteract recent gains HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price increase from trading patterns: 50%
  • Neutral price action due to offsetting signals: 30%
  • Price decrease from mean reversion: 20%




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: Buy $41 calls, sell $42 calls expiring in 45 days. This leverages implied volatility backwardation and bullish sentiment, minimizing risk with capped losses. Focus on short-term gains as backwardation implies greater near-term price activity.



January 24, 2025


Antero Resources Forecast

AR        Antero Resources











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AR



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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AR



ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.65)


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