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OTEX Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Open Text's strategic acquisitions and strong focus on AI and cloud technologies position it well for future growth. Current high call option volumes and backwardation in the volatility term structure suggest market optimism.



Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling and high debt levels could strain OTEX amid economic uncertainties. The current trading price shows significant declines from past values, and historical return data reveals substantial downside risk.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance: AI and cloud growth drive a 20% increase.
  • 50% chance: Insider selling and debt issues lead to a 15% decline.
  • 20% chance: Acquisition interest sparks a 25% price rise.


April 19, 2025


Open Text Forecast

OTEX        Open Text

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