ARDX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: If Xphozah sales improve and litigation outcomes favor Ardelyx, the stock should see significant upside, leveraging high IVs for potential gains.


Bearish Case: Continued Xphozah sales disappointments and crippling litigation could lead to further stock declines, especially given recent underperformance and insider selling.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Xphozah sales recover (50%).

2. Legal win boosts confidence (30%).

3. Continuation of disappointing sales (20%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bull put credit spreads. Sell the ARDX $5.00 put and buy the ARDX $4.50 put expiring in 28-30 days, leveraging current volatility structure for positive edge. Bullish outlook.


July 23, 2024


Ardelyx Forecast

ARDX      Ardelyx











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