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Bullish Case: Athira Pharma could see significant upside if LIFT-AD trial results are positive, potentially validating fosgonimeton as a breakthrough Alzheimer’s treatment, boosting investor confidence and attracting institutional interest.

Bearish Case: Market skepticism may prevail if LIFT-AD results are inconclusive or negative, which could prolong stock volatility and discourage new investments, given ATHA's history of mean-reverting price behavior.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive LIFT-AD results (30%).

2. Neutral results leading to minimal movement (50%).

3. Negative results causing a significant drop (20%).

4. Continued market focus shifts post-trial (25%).

Trading Oracle: Consider opening credit spreads using 2.50 P or 5.00 P options to benefit from high implied volatility and ATHA's mean-reverting price action. Time horizon: 2-3 months, targeting a downward movement with specified risk-reward parameters.

August 16, 2024