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AVAV Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AeroVironment (AVAV) is positioned for growth due to strong defense sector demand, innovative UAV tech, and contract wins, signaling potential upside. Long-term returns are favorable.

Bearish Case: Concerns regarding intense competition, defense budget changes, and high valuations suggest possible headwinds. The mean-reverting nature of AVAV’s price implies potential for price corrections.

Potential Outcomes: AVAV has a 55% chance to benefit from contract wins, 25% to face competition saturation, 20% risk from geopolitical tensions impacting budgets.

Trading Oracle: Given elevated implied volatility, utilize short volatility strategies via credit spreads. Consider March 2025 $150-$165 call spreads for a bearish outlook, leveraging potential mean reversion. This strategy has high probability and edge.

January 11, 2025

AeroVironment Forecast

AVAV AeroVironment

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AVAV

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.82)

NRG NRG Energy (0.79)

TT Trane (0.78)

NOK Nokia (0.76)

AGX Argan (0.76)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVAV

IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.0)

PEP Pepsico (0.01)

GTLS Chart Industries (0.02)

FHI Federated Hermes (-0.02)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVAV

FRSH Freshworks (-0.76)

WRAP Wrap (-0.76)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.77)

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings (-0.79)

DV DoubleVerify (-0.85)

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