AXL Forecast


Bullish Case: Vanguard's increased AXL holdings reflect institutional support. Expanded electric drive contracts and existing undervaluation support a price rally.


Bearish Case: AXL continues to struggle with flat price action, poor earnings outlook, and high debt-equity ratio, leading to ongoing downward pressure.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of price stabilization around $7.00. 30% chance of decline to $6.00 on negative earnings. 10% chance of rally to $8.00 on unexpected positive sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a debit spread strategy, buying Jan 2025 $7.00 calls and selling Jan 2025 $8.00 calls. Leveraging increased institutional backing, expect stabilization with potential upside by Q1 2025. Constructing a bullish spread provides optimal risk-reward while limiting exposure.


July 23, 2024


American Axle & Manufacturing Forecast

AXL      American Axle & Manufacturing











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AXL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AXL



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.02)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.37)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AXL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)





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