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AXSM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: AXSM's strong CNS pipeline shows promise for substantial growth, driven by upcoming drug approvals and positive results from trials that leverage historical price trends and market optimism.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility reflects market skepticism and potential overvaluation concerns for AXSM, which could hinder stock performance if anticipated clinical trial outcomes fall short or regulatory setbacks occur.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive trial results for AXS-05 and AXS-12 (60%);

2) Successful NDA resubmission for AXS-07 (40%);

3) Market reaction to Auvelity's sales data (25%);

4) Regulatory hassles causing stock dip (30%);

5) Overvaluation correction due to low trading volume (40%).



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread strategy by buying the AXSM $95 call and selling the $100 call with a 28-day expiry, leveraging high implied volatility for enhanced risk/reward potential. Alternatively, consider short puts at the $92.5 strike for an extensive market edge (68% probability of profit).


November 17, 2024


Axsome Therapeutics Forecast

AXSM        Axsome Therapeutics

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AXSM


PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (0.83)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (0.8)


GENI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GENI  Genius Sports (0.8)


CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (0.79)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AXSM


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (0.0)


TIGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TIGR  UP Fintech (-0.0)


UROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UROY  Uranium Royalty (-0.0)


LVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LVS  Las Vegas Sands (-0.0)


IRDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRDM  Iridium Communications (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AXSM


CDLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDLX  Cardlytics (-0.71)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.72)


CIVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIVI  Civitas Resources Inc New (-0.72)


LFMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LFMD  LifeMD (-0.76)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.78)







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