Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: AXSM's strong CNS pipeline shows promise for substantial growth, driven by upcoming drug approvals and positive results from trials that leverage historical price trends and market optimism.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility reflects market skepticism and potential overvaluation concerns for AXSM, which could hinder stock performance if anticipated clinical trial outcomes fall short or regulatory setbacks occur.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive trial results for AXS-05 and AXS-12 (60%);

2) Successful NDA resubmission for AXS-07 (40%);

3) Market reaction to Auvelity's sales data (25%);

4) Regulatory hassles causing stock dip (30%);

5) Overvaluation correction due to low trading volume (40%).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread strategy by buying the AXSM $95 call and selling the $100 call with a 28-day expiry, leveraging high implied volatility for enhanced risk/reward potential. Alternatively, consider short puts at the $92.5 strike for an extensive market edge (68% probability of profit).

November 17, 2024