BAH Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong government contracts in AI and security sectors provide sustained growth potential, fostering stability in revenue streams despite a high P/B ratio.




Bearish Case: Elevated price-to-book ratio and high implied volatility suggest potential overvaluation and correction risk, compounded by increased competition and regulatory scrutiny.




Potential Outcomes:
AI contract wins boost price (45%).
Market correction due to valuation (30%).
Increased competition affecting growth (25%).




Trading Oracle:
Employ Bearish Short Volatility strategy. Elevated implied volatility and previous mean-reversion trends support selling ATM calls while buying OTM calls, hedging against downside risk with strategic convexity.



March 26, 2025


Booz Allen Hamilton Forecast

BAH        Booz Allen Hamilton











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Assets that tend to move strongly with BAH



IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (0.8)


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.76)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.74)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (0.73)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BAH



CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.0)


RGLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGLD  Royal Gold (-0.0)


XPEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XPEL  Reg S (-0.0)


PG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PG  Procter & Gamble (-0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BAH



HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.62)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (-0.62)


CQP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CQP  Cheniere Energy (-0.65)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.68)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.77)









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