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BAH Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong government AI contract wins and robust earnings expected can propel BAH's stock upward. The implied volatility suggests lower future uncertainty, encouraging bullish sentiment.



Bearish Case: Persistent market volatility and possible earnings disappointment create room for downside risks. High valuation metrics alongside historical mean reversion signal potential price corrections.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Tax reform boosts defense spending (40% probability).
  2. Unexpected earnings miss triggers a price drop (30% probability).
  3. Continued AI contract growth supports further gains (25% probability).
  4. Market correction due to valuation concerns (5% probability).



Trading Oracle: Implement a credit call spread by selling the $140 call and buying the $145 call to exploit high implied volatility ahead of the January earnings report. This strategy aligns with a bearish outlook while limiting risk, leveraging a 72% probability of profitable outcomes in the current market environment.


December 18, 2024


Booz Allen Hamilton Forecast

BAH        Booz Allen Hamilton

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Assets that tend to move strongly with BAH


EDC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDC  Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Sh (0.82)


VWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VWO  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (0.79)


STX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STX  Seagate Technology (0.79)


EFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFA  BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.76)


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BAH


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.0)


VRDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRDN  Viridian Therapeutics (0.01)


SBAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBAC  SBA Communications (-0.01)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BAH


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.7)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.73)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.73)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.75)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.79)







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