BCS Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BCS's adoption of digital initiatives shows promising gains, supported by a near-term positive trend in historical returns and a substantial increase over preceding years, indicating continued investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and reputational challenges, coupled with high implied volatility, suggest potential downside risks. Recent outages and legal controversies could erode investor trust.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth in digital transformation enhancing efficiency (60%)
  • Regulatory impact leading to decline (40%)
  • M&A activity boosting stock (30%)
  • Continued reputational damage (25%)




Trading Oracle: Adopt a Bearish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options. Current high IV and potential downside from reputational risks make it prudent to hedge against sudden drops, utilizing the existing volatility surface.



March 18, 2025


Barclays Forecast

BCS        Barclays











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ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.96)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.96)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.96)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (0.95)


PJT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PJT  PJT (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BCS



RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.01)


APPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPF  Appfolio (0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)


RARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RARE  Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BCS



DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (-0.9)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.9)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.9)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.92)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.93)









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