BGS Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased call volume and potential short-term mean reversion may boost BGS by leveraging market recovery optimism.




Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility and recent negative price trends highlight structural issues, suggesting further downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: Most likely, BGS faces stagnation (45%), decline (35%), or slight recovery (20%) given volatility and past performance trends.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread with BGS. Sell the Aug 2025 $9 call and buy the $10 call. Optimal due to overvalued volatility, persistently weak underlying performance, and favorable risk-reward if BGS stays below $9. Target 75-90 day window for expiration.



January 02, 2025


B&G Foods Forecast

BGS        B&G Foods











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BGS



BRKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BRKR  Bruker (0.87)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.85)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (0.84)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (0.83)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BGS



VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.01)


FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (-0.01)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.01)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (0.02)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BGS



GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.8)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (-0.8)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (-0.81)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (-0.82)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (-0.83)









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