BHB Forecast


Bullish Case: BHB's strong historical returns, particularly over long holding periods, suggest potential for sustained growth. If market conditions align, including favorable economic indicators, a bullish trend could emerge, leveraging the historical likelihood of returns exceeding 20% over one to two years.


Bearish Case: Current flat price action and high institutional selling indicate bearish potential. If this trend continues, compounded by macroeconomic factors like rising interest rates or regulatory challenges, BHB could see significant price deterioration.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat trading (~60%).

2. Institutional sell-off intensifies (~25%).

3. Earnings surprises lead to modest rallies (~10%).

4. Major macroeconomic shifts result in a downturn (~5%).


Trading Oracle: Consider trading credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) by selling the BHB 10/18/2024 30.00-35.00 call spreads. This aligns with a bearish outlook. The high implied volatility presents a unique opportunity to capitalize on potential stagnation, offering a favorable risk-reward profile.


July 25, 2024


Bar Harbor Bankshares Forecast

BHB      Bar Harbor Bankshares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BHB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.19)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BHB



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.19)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.19)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)





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