Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could ignite significant demand for BITO, pushing prices higher amid recovering institutional interest, while current low volatility offers a favorable entry point.

Bearish Case: Continued regulatory scrutiny and high implied volatility could stymie price recovery, leading to further corrections in BITO, especially given the historical price patterns indicating potential downward trends.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Spot ETF approval leading to a 60% price increase (70% chance).

2) Continued regulatory pressures forcing a price drop (30% chance).

3) High inflation reducing Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a hedge (20% chance).

4) Recovery of institutional confidence leading to moderate gains (50% chance).

Trading Oracle: A bullish strategy focused on selling near-term downside protection by executing a credit spread: sell 1 $19.50 strike put, buy 2 $18.50 strike puts. This captures premium decay with a favorable risk-reward, estimated market odds of profit at 69%.

October 20, 2024