BNDX Forecast


Bullish Case: Interest rate cuts in Europe and Canada could drive BNDX higher, presenting an opportunity for capital appreciation. Positive asset flows and a diversified portfolio support this outlook.


Bearish Case: Historical returns indicate a higher likelihood of negative returns over short holding periods. Elevated market implied volatility suggests increased uncertainty and potential for downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Prolonged price stabilization (50%): Minor fluctuations with no major catalysts.

2. Marginal depreciation (30%): Following historical trends and macroeconomic headwinds.

3. Significant appreciation (20%): Driven by interest rate cuts and positive inflows.


Trading Oracle: Sell ATM call spreads (Helium Short Volatility) with 60-90 days expiry. Given the elevated implied volatility, options premiums are attractive for selling. This strategy capitalizes on expected price stabilization or slight depreciation. Focus on short-term opportunities to optimize reward:risk and probability-of-profit.


July 21, 2024


Vanguard Group Forecast

BNDX      Vanguard Group











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BNDX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BNDX



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BNDX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)





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