Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Resilient return-to-office trends boost occupancy and lease rates for BXP, driven by urban demand. Positive economic momentum and reduced remote work contribute to a potential recovery, leading to stock price appreciation.

Bearish Case: Continued remote work trends and economic fluctuations threaten BXP’s occupancy and rental income, risking further valuation decline. Increased office vacancies and competitive pressures diminish growth outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Accelerated return-to-office (40%);

2. Prolonged remote work (35%);

3. Economic downturn impacting occupancy (15%);

4. Reduced new construction alleviating supply pressure (10%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit call spread by buying the BXP 80.00 C and selling the BXP 85.00 C, targeting expiration in December. Volatility is favorable with a 33% edge, aiming for a 425% return if the price stabilizes above $80.

November 05, 2024