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CAH Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CAH shows strong historical growth and investor interest, with call volumes significantly surpassing puts. Low long-term volatility enhances stability potential.

Bearish Case: Legal risks and high current P/B ratio suggest overvaluation. Imbalance in option volumes and backwardation in term structure imply near-term downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: 60% growth: propelled by rising healthcare demand and stability; 25% stagnation: due to overvaluation concerns; 15% decline: from legal pressures and market uncertainty.

Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread: buy CAH $130 calls and sell $135 calls with 2-month expiry to capitalize on stability and investor optimism. Risk is mitigated by limited spread width.

January 22, 2025

Cardinal Health Forecast

CAH Cardinal Health

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAH

SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals (0.86)

TRV Travelers Companies (0.85)

SNA Snap-on (0.84)

V Visa (0.83)

BYRN Byrna (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAH

FENY Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index (-0.01)

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.01)

MT New York Shares (0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.01)

BDX Becton, Dickinson And Company (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAH

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.78)

ST Sensata (-0.79)

BIIB Biogen (-0.79)

VAL Valaris (-0.81)

TNK Teekay Tankers (-0.85)

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