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CBOE Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: CBOE's expansion into new markets and products could drive growth. Historical mean-reverting prices suggest stability, while options show bullish risk outweighs bearish.



Bearish Case: Low trading volumes and high implied volatility indicate potential market anxiety. Historical mean reversion and insider sales can suppress growth, posing short-term risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of growth due to product expansion.
  • 40% potential for stagnation from low trading volumes.
  • 30% chance of profit from short volatility strategies.



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish short volatility strategy via put credit spreads; sell $200 puts and buy $190 puts, expiring in March. Focus on profiting from time decay, leveraging low trading volume and high implied volatility with a 75% probability of profit.


February 05, 2025


Cboe Global Markets Forecast

CBOE        Cboe Global Markets

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBOE


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.88)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.88)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.86)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.86)


CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBOE


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (-0.0)


FXE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXE  Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (-0.01)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.02)


IAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAC  IAC InterActiveCorp. (0.02)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBOE


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (-0.75)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.76)


HRTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRTX  Heron Therapeutics (-0.77)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.78)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.83)







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