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CBU Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong community ties, solid loan growth, and low projected volatility might support stable upward movement for CBU.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and mean reversion tendencies, combined with potential economic headwinds, could drive CBU lower.

Potential Outcomes: Steady loan growth, modest price rise (30%)
Economic challenges, potential price drop (40%)
Regulatory shifts, increased volatility (30%)

March 15, 2025

Community Bank System Forecast

CBU Community Bank System

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBU

DPST Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.98)

MTB M & T (0.95)

VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 Index (0.93)

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.93)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBU

DV DoubleVerify (-0.01)

SU Suncor Energy (-0.01)

HBM Hudbay Minerals (0.01)

PCAR Paccar (0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBU

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (-0.82)

WU Western Union (-0.82)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.83)

ASML New York Shares (-0.83)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.86)

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