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CBU Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CBU’s strong community ties and consistent dividends enhance investor confidence. Positive sentiment and potential loan growth could drive modest price appreciation.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent negative price trends suggest risk of further declines. Economic challenges and regulatory uncertainty may constrain growth.

Potential Outcomes: Revenue growth boosts price 30% (40%).
Stagnation, limited move (35%).
Economic pressures cause 20% drop (25%).

April 13, 2025

Community Bank System Forecast

CBU Community Bank System

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBU

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.94)

MTB M & T (0.91)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.91)

KKR KKR (0.9)

CMI Cummins (0.88)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBU

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.0)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.01)

MTW Manitowoc Co. (-0.01)

NOG Northern Oil and Gas (-0.01)

ZBH Zimmer Biomet (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBU

XP XP (-0.66)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.67)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.7)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.73)

DOG ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.92)

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