CBU Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong community ties, solid loan growth, and low projected volatility might support stable upward movement for CBU.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and mean reversion tendencies, combined with potential economic headwinds, could drive CBU lower.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Steady loan growth, modest price rise (30%)
  • Economic challenges, potential price drop (40%)
  • Regulatory shifts, increased volatility (30%)



March 15, 2025


Community Bank System Forecast

CBU        Community Bank System











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBU



DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.98)


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.95)


EWBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWBC  East West Bancorp (0.95)


VTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTWO  Vanguard Russell 2000 Index (0.93)


BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLK  Blackrock (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBU



SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.01)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (-0.01)


CODI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CODI  Compass Diversified (-0.01)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.02)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBU



WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.82)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.83)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.83)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.86)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.93)









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