Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rising oil and gas prices, combined with strong earnings estimates and enhanced institutional support, could propel CNX's stock above $40, driven by increased investor confidence and demand.

Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and high levels of market uncertainty could suppress CNX stock prices, especially if institutional investors continue liquidating positions, triggering further downside pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Geopolitical tensions escalate: 30%,

2. Oil prices stabilize bolstering CNX revenue: 50%,

3. Large institutional buy-ins drive stock price upward: 40%,

4. Elevated market volatility leads to sharp price swings: 45%.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish call spread strategy by buying 1 $40.00 call and selling 1 $41.00 call expiring in 37 days. Target a return of 20% with a strong probability of success at 68% based on current implied volatility outlook. Monitor institutional flows as they provide key signals.

November 15, 2024