COFS Forecast


Bullish Case: COFS may experience a strong recovery as it continues to trade at a favorable discount to fair value, supported by consistent dividend payouts and stable financial performance, potentially igniting investor interest.


Bearish Case: Weak economic indicators and rising interest rates could suppress consumer spending and loan demand, leading COFS to further mean-revert and experience stagnation or decline in its price over the next year.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Stability (35%): Price remains stable due to dividends.

2. Mild Decline (40%): Negative market sentiment causes slight depreciation.

3. Low Probability Rally (25%): Unexpected market recovery leads to significant gains.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread targeting COFS under $28 with a 2-month outlook. High probability and risk/reward due to current market factors. Alternatively, bullish positions could benefit from potential undervaluation if sentiment swings positively.


July 25, 2024


Choiceone Financial Services Forecast

COFS      Choiceone Financial Services











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BOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOH  Bank of Hawaii (0.89)


WAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WAL  Western Alliance Bancorp (0.86)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.86)


KRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRE  SPDR S&P Regional Banking (0.86)


MUB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares National Muni Bond (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COFS



FLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLO  Flowers Foods (-0.0)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.0)


NEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEE  NextEra Energy (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COFS



CELH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CELH  Celsius (-0.73)


IMAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMAX  Imax (-0.74)


FNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNV  Franco-Nevada (-0.74)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)





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