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COLB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increased call option volume and positive sentiment from Umpqua Bank merger optimism suggest growth potential. Improved implied volatility compared to market hints at positive developments ahead.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility in puts and integration challenges post-Umpqua merger highlight potential for downside. Sentiment uncertainty and risk of operational issues may lead to price declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance COLB remains mean-reverting around $22-$23.
  • 25% chance of uptick due to merger synergies materializing.
  • 15% chance of downturn if integration falters.



Trading Oracle:
Consider a Bullish Long Volatility strategy with call options. Rising implied volatility and increased call volumes merit a strategy leveraging potential upside movements.


April 10, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COLB


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.98)


EWBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWBC  East West Bancorp (0.97)


PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (0.96)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.96)


BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLK  Blackrock (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COLB


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.0)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.01)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.01)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (-0.01)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COLB


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.78)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.87)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.88)


SPDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPDN  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.93)







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