Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CROX may benefit from continued successful collaborations and new product launches, coupled with a favorable market sentiment indicated by a gradual increase in implied volatility through early 2025. Positive sales momentum could drive prices higher.

Bearish Case: Potential decline in CROX's popularity and fashion trends, evidenced by mixed consumer responses to recent styles, may hinder sales. Increasing bearish sentiment is linked to market volatility, suggesting risks of significant price drops ahead.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued collaborations boost sales (70%);

2. Declining interest due to shifting fashion (30%);

3. Successful international expansion increases revenue (50%);

4. Legal challenges impact brand reputation (20%).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish long call spread by buying the $100 call and selling the $105 call targeting further profit as CROX stabilizes. This strategy leverages the increase in implied volatility, aiming for a return of 50% with a probability of profit at 75%, aligned with the bullish outlook towards mid-2025.

November 19, 2024