RELY Forecast


Bullish Case: RELY's contango structure and mid-term IV peak suggest undervaluation. Historical tendency for rebounds post-corrective periods (RELY.png). Debit spreads offer asymmetric reward with controlled risk.


Bearish Case: Elevated short-term IV and flat recent price action (volatility_surface.png, return_surface.png) imply persistent market uncertainty. Put volume dominance (RELY 07/19/2024 12.50 P) implies downside expectancy.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Rebound from oversold conditions: 30%.

2. Persistent underperformance due to competition: 40%.

3. Mean reversion maintaining current levels: 30%. Input from options volume and recent trend.


Trading Oracle: Execute 3-month debit spreads given IV contango, targeting mid-term bounce. Buy 10 strike calls; sell 12.5 strike calls. Time horizon: 60-90 days. Bullish strategy capitalizes on potential reversal, leveraging RELY's volume and historical price behavior for high R/R trade.


July 10, 2024


Remitly Forecast

RELY      Remitly











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RELY



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RELY



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RELY



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.8)





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