Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong demand in the specialty metals sector suggests potential price resilience and further gains for CRS, supported by recent upward trends and favorable earnings forecasts.

Bearish Case: Elevated market uncertainty and high implied volatility indicate potential instability for CRS, with historical price patterns suggesting an increased risk of a downturn.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price surge to $200 (30% probability) due to positive earnings.

2. Stabilization around $180 (40%) as market digests recent volatility.

3. Drop to $160 (30%) stemming from escalating market fears.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish put credit spread: sell $170 put and buy $165 put with 7-day expiration. High probability-of-profit estimated at 78%, leveraging high implied volatility and market optimism for quick gains. Alternatively, assess debit spreads on long volatility if expecting broader market instability.

November 12, 2024