CVI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: CVI shows potential recovery bolstered by institutional buying and significant historical profitability despite recent declines. The implied volatility structure suggests traders are pricing in potential upward movements, indicating optimism about future performance.


Bearish Case: Recent volatility indicates persistent uncertainty. Historical trends reveal a strong likelihood of continued price declines, especially given the recent earnings miss and declining revenues, which may amplify bearish sentiment among investors.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% likelihood of a recover to $30 within 90 days, driven by bullish momentum;

2) 40% chance of sideways trading around $25 due to mixed earnings signals;

3) 30% probability of decline to $22, influenced by negative investor sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread, buying the August 16, 2024, $25 calls while selling $30 calls. This utilizes the current high implied volatility for potential upside gain, especially if priced under the anticipated $30 threshold within the 60-day horizon.


July 25, 2024


CVR Energy Forecast

CVI      CVR Energy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVI



DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.67)


RGTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGTI  Rigetti Computing (0.66)


DINO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DINO  HF Sinclair (0.64)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (0.6)


BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVI



CVNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVNA  Carvana (-0.0)


DIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIS  Walt Disney (-0.0)


H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (-0.0)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.0)


INMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INMB  INmune Bio (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVI



PCG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCG  PG&E (-0.47)


AAPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAPL  Apple (-0.5)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (-0.53)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (-0.53)


SNAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNAP  Snapchat (-0.57)





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