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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Deutsche Bank demonstrates resilience with strong Q3 profits and strategic global expansions, possibly benefiting from regulatory easing and improved market conditions.



Bearish Case: Persistent legal issues and high implied volatility continue to threaten Deutsche Bank's stability, potentially leading to further operational disruptions and declining investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance DB profits increase due to effective compliance measures.

2. 35% chance regulatory challenges escalate, impacting growth.

3. 25% chance of market downturn affecting bank stock performance.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying 1 $17 call and selling 1 $18 call, expiring in ~30 days. With current high implied volatility implying potential upside, this strategy has positive edge, targeting a market odds of 75% profit with significant potential returns.


October 27, 2024


Deutsche Forecast

DB        Deutsche

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BMA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMA  Banco Macro (0.89)


STRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STRL  Sterling Construction Company (0.88)


CRBG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRBG  SAFG Retirement Services (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DB


EW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EW  Edwards Lifesciences (-0.0)


ELAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELAN  Elanco Animal Health (0.0)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.0)


MRNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRNA  Moderna (0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DB


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.79)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.79)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.79)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.81)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)







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