DBP Forecast


Bullish Case: DBP historical returns show a likelihood of upside in many holding periods. Implied volatility is low, suggesting favorable conditions for potential price increases.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility surface indicates high volatility at lower strikes, implying market uncertainty. Historical returns also show significant probability of negative returns.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase due to historical strength (60%).

2. Price decrease under macroeconomic pressure (30%).

3. Market remains flat due to neutrality (10%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads e.g., buy Jul '24 $57.00 call and sell $60.00 call, exploiting low IV and potential for price rise. 1-month horizon aims at taking advantage of favorable historical returns and low implied volatility.


June 28, 2024


Invesco DB Precious Metals Forecast

DBP      Invesco DB Precious Metals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DBP



SIVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIVR  Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares (0.93)


PEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEG  Public Service Enterprise (0.9)


AGQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGQ  ProShares Ultra Silver (0.9)


GDXJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDXJ  VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (0.89)


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DBP



BEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEAM  Beam Therapeutics (0.0)


QSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QSR  Restaurant Brands International (0.0)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (0.01)


FTNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTNT  Fortinet (0.01)


BDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BDN  Brandywine Realty (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DBP



ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.66)


CSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSCO  Cisco Systems (-0.67)


DVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVAX  Dynavax (-0.69)


IYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IYT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Transportation (-0.69)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.71)





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