Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: DECK's options market implies increasing volatility ahead, suggesting potential upward price movements. Strong historical performance, especially in HOKA sales, strengthens the bullish case as consumer demand is projected to rise, fostering investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Despite historical strength, DECK's sharp drop from $632 to $178 indicates potential vulnerabilities. Market volatility and uncertainty in consumer spending could lead to further declines as traders react to heightened implied volatility and economic shifts.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises to $210 (40%); strong brand demand boosts sales amid rising volatility.

2. Stabilization around $175 (35%); market uncertainty leads to indecision.

3. Drop to $150 (25%); bearish sentiment prevails due to economic concerns and competitor pressures.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bull call spread by buying DECK 11/15/2024 $180 calls and selling $190 calls. Target gains with defined risk as earnings approach, leveraging higher implied volatility and strong preorder sales for HOKA, aligning with market expectations. Potential return on risk is 15% (riding optimistic investor sentiment).

November 14, 2024