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DEI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: DEI's robust portfolio in sought-after locales may allow it to outshine competitors as economic conditions recover, supported by potential mean reversion trends indicated by historical return surfaces.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility (500% for short-term puts) signals acute market uncertainty, coupled with negative social media sentiment and potential financial setbacks, suggesting further price declines may be likely.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 30% chance of a modest recovery, driven by overall market stabilization and institutional buying interest.
  2. 40% chance of continued price decline due to sustained high implied volatility and negative market sentiment.
  3. 20% chance of a sharp rebound post-positive earnings announcement.
  4. 10% chance of drastic downturn due to regulatory backlash or significant investor withdrawals.



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December 20, 2024


Douglas Emmett Forecast

DEI        Douglas Emmett

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DEI


ZION Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZION  Zions Bancorporation N.A (0.92)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (0.88)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.88)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.88)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DEI


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.0)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.01)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.01)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (0.02)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DEI


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.78)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.78)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.8)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.81)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.84)







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