DOW Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Recent DOW mean reversion, lower volatility, and bullish risk suggest potential stabilization and gradual recovery. Strong corporate earnings could spark investor confidence.




Bearish Case: High put option volume and Dow's recent price drop indicate persistent fears. Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns may exacerbate downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of mean reversion leading to moderate gains
  • 30% chance of downward pressure due to geopolitical issues
  • 20% chance of volatility stabilization
  • 10% chance of sharp recovery with strong earnings



March 19, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DOW



LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.97)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.96)


AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.95)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.94)


ODP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODP  ODP (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DOW



DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.0)


APLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLE  Apple Hospitality REIT (0.01)


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (-0.01)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.02)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DOW



BTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTI  British American Tobacco (-0.89)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.9)


EAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EAT  Brinker International (-0.9)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.91)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (-0.91)









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