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DOW Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The DOW may rise given recent positive economic data and a consistent decline in implied volatility, indicating market stability. Strong corporate earnings could further bolster investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Potential risks from looming government shutdowns and high volatility estimates suggest a bearish outlook for the DOW. Recent Federal Reserve comments may also restrain upside momentum.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued economic growth (40%);

2. Government shutdown causing disruptions (30%);

3. Unexpected geopolitical events impacting market sentiment (20%);

4. Significant earnings beats pushing DOW higher (10%).



Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish strategy using debit spreads, such as buying $52.50 calls and selling $54.00 calls expiring in 30 days. The favorable market sentiment and declining implied volatility provide a potential 30% return with manageable risk.


October 20, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DOW


CE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CE  Series (0.88)


OLN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLN  Olin (0.86)


AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.86)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.85)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DOW


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (0.0)


AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (-0.0)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (0.0)


ARCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARCC  Ares (-0.0)


TU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TU  Telus (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DOW


PLNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLNT  Planet Fitness (-0.69)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.7)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.7)


ALNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (-0.73)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.75)







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