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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rising market sentiment, indicated by high call volume, coupled with increasing implied volatility suggests potential bullish momentum for EDC, targeting price levels above $45.

Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and high historical volatility may limit upside potential, with a risk of reverting below $30 if market sentiment shifts negatively.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% chance for moderate rise to $45-$48 as market momentum builds.

2. 30% chance for stability around $40.

3. 25% chance for decline below $35 driven by volatility pressures and economic uncertainties.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long volatility debit spread. Buy EDC 42.00 C expiring 10/18/2024 and sell EDC 50.00 C. This strategy captures expected upside movement while managing risk, aiming for high reward-to-risk as the volatility structure remains favorable.

October 02, 2024