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EDV Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: EDV may experience upward momentum if interest rates stabilize, supported by increasing institutional buy-in. Rising implied volatility indicates higher trading activity and optimism, possibly driving prices toward resistance around $81.



Bearish Case: Continued economic pressures and historical performance suggest a bearish outlook for EDV, with strong downside volatility indicated. Events such as rate hikes could exacerbate declines, potentially pushing prices below $67.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of EDV recovering to $78, driven by institutional support.

2. 50% chance of flat performance given current volatility.

3. 20% chance of significant downward movement to $64 due to economic pressures.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, buying EDV $75 call options and selling $76 calls. This strategy capitalizes on potential upward movements with a favorable risk/reward profile. Alternatively, a bearish credit spread can hedge against declines while capturing premium from high implied volatility.


November 17, 2024


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EDV        Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EDV


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.97)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.95)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.95)


LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (0.92)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EDV


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.0)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.0)


UTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UTI  Universal Technical Institute (-0.0)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (0.0)


TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EDV


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.68)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.68)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.94)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.95)







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