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ELF Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: A stable implied volatility term structure and a community-driven brand can propel recovery in ELF, enhancing investor confidence amidst recent dips.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and decreased short-term demand due to external factors, like TikTok uncertainty, suggest potential continued challenges.

Potential Outcomes: Sustained growth (50%): Leveraging social media.
Continued volatility (30%): External challenges.
Significant decline (20%): Market saturation.

March 16, 2025

e.l.f. Beauty Forecast

ELF e.l.f. Beauty

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ELF

INDI Indie Semiconductor (0.86)

ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (0.84)

VRNT Verint Systems (0.84)

BIIB Biogen (0.83)

ATKR Atkore (0.83)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ELF

VOD Vodafone (0.0)

MNSO MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.0)

XPEL Reg S (-0.01)

AIG American International (-0.01)

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ELF

MCD McDonald's (-0.84)

EVRG Evergy (-0.84)

NOK Nokia (-0.84)

DTE DTE Energy (-0.84)

SATS EchoStar (-0.84)

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