ELF Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: e.l.f. Beauty's long-term brand recall and unique positioning in the beauty market suggest potential recovery as consumer sentiment stabilizes post-TikTok uncertainties.




Bearish Case: High volatility and put option volume suggest caution; negative sentiment from recent earnings and social media influence poses significant downside risk.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Market recovery (35%): Stable consumer sentiment boosts ELF.
  • Continued decline (50%): Ongoing volatility impacts investor confidence.
  • Flat performance (15%): Market reassessment stabilizes price.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a bearish short volatility strategy by selling the ELF 02/14/2025 70.00 put and buying the 65.00 put. Capitalizing on high volatility and market pessimism with favorable risk-to-reward. Short-term horizon for profit.



February 08, 2025


e.l.f. Beauty Forecast

ELF        e.l.f. Beauty











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