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EMD Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The bullish case for EMD rests on improving economic fundamentals in emerging markets, stable yields, and favorable historical returns, indicating considerable upside potential over the next 1-2 years with likelihood for positive returns looming higher for longer holding periods.



Bearish Case: A bearish stance stems from global geopolitical tensions, potential inflationary pressures, and stagnation in economic recovery, risking declines in investor confidence and substantial sell-offs, as historical performance indicates vulnerability to short-term negative shifts.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued upward trend (35%) due to stability in EM yields.

2. Significant price drop (30%) driven by renewed geopolitical crises.

3. Prolonged stagnation (35%) in price due to lack of macroeconomic catalysts.



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December 05, 2024


Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Forecast

EMD        Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EMD


SPXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXL  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (0.88)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.88)


TTD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTD  Trade Desk (0.88)


SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (0.88)


VWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VWO  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EMD


EXPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPD  Expeditors International Of Washington (0.0)


UNIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNIT  Uniti (-0.01)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (-0.02)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.02)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EMD


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.79)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.8)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.8)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.82)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)







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