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Bullish Case: EPC demonstrates strong institutional support and potential earnings beats. Its historically mean-reverting price action, combined with upcoming product launches, signals potential price upside as implied volatilities normalize.

Bearish Case: Recent market volatility remains high, with significant put volume indicating bearish sentiment. Continued economic headwinds could compress earnings expectations, risking price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings surprise (40%) leading to price jump.

2. Continued volatility leading to flat returns (30%).

3. Major market sell-off affecting price (20%).

4. Disappointing earnings results (10%). Probabilities based on historical trends and volatility structures.

Trading Oracle: Given current implied volatility disparities, consider initiating bullish debit spreads targeting the October 40.00 C option. This capitalizes on low immediate vol and potential upside ahead of earnings, balancing high reward:risk with favorable probabilities. Focus on a short-to-medium-term outlook.

October 13, 2024