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Bullish Case: Implied volatility is higher than market expectations, suggesting potential price increases. Mean reversion may support a recovery as EQNR is undervalued compared to its historical performance. Market sentiment could shift positively, particularly with gas production trends improving.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions and slowing demand for energy can pressure EQNR’s pricing. Additionally, the recent downtrend amidst high put volume suggests ongoing bearish sentiment. Consistent production challenges may lead to further declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery due to mean reversion: 35%.

2. Continued bearish trends: 40%.

3. Sideways movement driven by market volatility fluctuations: 25%. Historical data indicates ongoing price sensitivity to macroeconomic factors.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread strategy by buying $27.71 calls and selling $29.71 calls with a 75-day expiration. This captures high implied volatility and anticipated price rebound, targeting an 80% probability of profit with favorable risk-reward characteristics.

August 28, 2024


Equinor ASA - Forecast

EQNR      Equinor ASA -

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