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ERY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Implied volatility for ERY has increased significantly, indicating potential bullish sentiment. A short-term energy crisis could drive prices upwards, supported by recent call volume surges, providing a strong basis for a rally.



Bearish Case: High historical volatility persists while ERY remains down 82.6% over ten years, reflecting long-term bearish trends. Economic indicators suggest sustained pressure, forming a compelling case for further declines in energy prices.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued decline (55%) due to enduring bearish sentiment.

2. Short-term rally (30%) triggered by increased demand.

3. Stabilization around $22 (15%) as market conditions stabilize. Industry trends and recent volatility data inform these probabilities.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using ERY 01/17/2025 $24.00 Call at an IV of 35.2 paired with the $25.00 Call at an IV of 45.9. This aligns with expected volatility spikes, providing solid upside potential against current market sentiment.


December 13, 2024


Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares Forecast

ERY        Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares

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IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (0.68)


ADBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADBE  Adobe (0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ERY


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.01)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (0.01)


HOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOG  Harley-Davidson (-0.01)


CSGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSGP  Costar Group (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ERY


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.78)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.78)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (-0.81)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (-0.82)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (-0.94)







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