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EXC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: EXC's stable financials and consistent dividend yield support a positive outlook amid low implied volatility. Strategic moves towards renewable energy position it well for future growth, enhancing investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Persistent legal issues and insider selling present significant downside risks. Combined with low call option volumes and market skepticism, these factors could hinder short-term price growth despite stable financial metrics.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance legal issues depress stock further.
  • 30% mean reversion supports price stability.
  • 20% institutional interest uplifts stock.



Trading Oracle: Given EXC's stable but uncertain outlook due to legal issues and insider selling, a Bearish Short Volatility strategy is optimal. Sell ATM call options, buying more OTM calls. This aligns with current market dynamics, maximizing profit potential amidst heightened volatility.


April 25, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EXC


AGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGI  Alamos Gold (0.81)


EUFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUFN  BTC iShares MSCI Europe Financials (0.8)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.75)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.7)


SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EXC


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRVL  Marvell Technology (0.01)


GROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GROY  Gold Royalty (-0.01)


EXAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAS  Exact Sciences (0.01)


DXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXC  DXC Technology (0.03)


MBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MBI  MBIA (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EXC


ODP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODP  ODP (-0.73)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.73)


AMCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMCX  AMC Networks (-0.76)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.77)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (-0.8)







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