MBI Forecast


Bullish Case: MBI's price stabilization, Helium volatility consistently higher than the market's, and largely flat term structure imply controlled volatility and potential for near-term growth.


Bearish Case: Long-term decline in price, significant historical losses over multiple holding periods, and persistently high long-term implied volatility suggest uncertainty and sustained negative trends.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Colombian economic growth stabilizes, MBI prices rise slightly (50%).

2. Political instability impacts negatively, further dropping prices (30%).

3. High volatility leads to trading opportunities (20%).


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April 30, 2024


MBIA Forecast

MBI        MBIA
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to MBI



NE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NE  Noble (0.0)


LOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LOW  Lowe's Cos. (-0.0)


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CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.0)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against MBI



AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.72)


SFM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFM  Sprouts Farmers Market (-0.72)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.73)


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STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.76)





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