Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The historical price return shows a significant likelihood of positive returns over 1-2 years. Current implied volatility is high, indicating growing options activity suggests bullish sentiment and recovery in logistic demand, especially post-FOMC meetings.

Bearish Case: Despite historical growth, recent flat performance and low trading volume signify potential stagnation. High market uncertainty and bearish sentiment reflected in a significantly higher implied volatility for puts indicate risk of downside movement in the short term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of flat price action short-term.

2. 35% possibility of modest recovery (>5%) following Fed actions.

3. 25% risk of downturn if economic forecasts worsen, particularly with declining demand signals.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish call debit spread by buying the $120 call and selling the $125 call, capitalizing on potential upside with 145% target return positive edge. Alternatively, consider selling $120 puts for steady income, leveraging low expected volatility. This aligns with a moderately bullish stance based on current market sentiment.

November 08, 2024