FILL Forecast


Bullish Case: FILL's resilient price recovery, modest gains over 2-year windows, and slight market-beating volatility suggests potential upward momentum, supported by consistent mean-reverting patterns.


Bearish Case: FILL’s recent price decrease over 60 days combined with elevated implied volatility suggests heightened uncertainty, and potential downturns in the global energy market could drive prices lower.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price Stabilization (45%): Likely to stay between $24-$27.

2. Bullish Shift (30%): Potential uplift to $28-$30 with positive energy trends.

3. Bearish Drop (25%): Possible dip to $22-$24 due to macroeconomic downturns.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread, buying 26.00 C and selling 28.00 C with Aug 16 expiry. This strategy leverages mean-reverting tendencies and possible near-term price appreciation, offering high reward-to-risk ratio while insulating downside risks.


July 20, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers Forecast

FILL      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers











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ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.93)


CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNX  CNX Resources (0.92)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FILL



EFX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFX  Equifax (0.0)


BJRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJRI  BJ's Restaurant (-0.0)


WYNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WYNN  Wynn Resorts (0.0)


BKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKE  Buckle (0.0)


IDCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDCC  Interdigital (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FILL



SAGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAGE  Sage Therapeutics (-0.79)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (-0.8)


SOXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXX  BTC iShares PHLX Semicond (-0.8)


FIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVN  Five9 (-0.8)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.88)





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