Bullish Case: FLR shows resilience with recent upticks in call option volumes and new project wins, suggesting potential growth in infrastructure and technology sectors. Mean-reverting trends, alongside stable implied volatility, support gradual price improvements.

Bearish Case: Market uncertainties, regulatory constraints, and financial instability pose risks for FLR. Past losses, combined with high implied volatility in near-term options, indicate potential negative impacts, particularly if cost overruns persist.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance growing project wins support FLR's recovery.
• 30% risk of regulatory pressure hindering progress.
• 20% likely financial instability affects profitability.
• 10% chance economic shifts disrupt operations.

Trading Oracle:

Given FLR's recent volatility and mean-reverting nature, implement a Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Sell $40 strike puts and buy $35 strike puts, leveraging slight positive sentiment and stable term structures. This capitalizes on market-neutral strategies while hedging against potential downturns, targeting a 78% probability of profit with high expected return.

March 21, 2025