Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: FM could experience a bullish reversal if geopolitical tensions ease, bolstered by a strong historical return trend over long holding periods, suggesting potential price recovery.

Bearish Case: The high implied volatility indicates significant market uncertainty, potentially leading to bearish pressure if geopolitical issues persist and market sentiment swings negative.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 20% chance of price recovering to $30 due to market stabilization and positive economic news.
2. 50% chance of gradual decline to $25 persistently driven by geopolitical tensions
3. 30% chance of volatility spikes leading to abrupt shifts in trading behavior, impacting price fluctuations.

Trading Oracle: Given the current high implied volatility, consider entering a bullish debit spread using FM 30 Call Buy and FM 25 Call Sell, aiming for a January expiration to capitalize on potential price recovery within a supportive historical return framework. This setup leverages volatility while managing risk effectively.

December 14, 2024