FMF Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: FMF's historical data shows improved returns over longer holding periods, indicating resilience. Sentiment is cautiously optimistic about managed futures during volatile markets.




Bearish Case: FMF's recent flat performance and declining returns over short periods pose risks. Social sentiment highlights concerns about fees and strategy complexity.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. U.S. military aid boosts FMF (35%) - Continued geopolitical support might enhance managed futures' appeal.
  2. Economic uncertainty causes stagnation (40%) - Unpredictable macro factors could lead to flat performance.
  3. Geopolitical tensions cause declines (25%) - Heightened risk could deter investment.



April 11, 2025


First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Forecast

FMF        First Trust Managed Futures Strategy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMF



NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.88)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.86)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.78)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.74)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMF



ET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ET  Energy Transfer LP (0.01)


BHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHC  Bausch Health Companies (-0.01)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (0.02)


AMPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMPL  Amplitude (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMF



HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (-0.76)


CB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CB  Chubb (-0.78)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (-0.81)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.85)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.86)









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