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FMF Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FMF's potential for positive long-term returns is emphasized by historical data suggesting increased returns over extended holding periods, especially as geopolitical tensions ease and economic conditions stabilize.



Bearish Case: High fees, complexity of futures trading, and FMF's recent flat performance highlight concerns. The past decline and skepticism regarding its consistent value against traditional investments raise potential risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Military aid boosts FMF (+40%) aligning with past predictions.

2. Economic uncertainties drive sideways movement (+35%).

3. Geopolitical tensions cause decline (-25%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) as historical data shows limited downside. Target near-term stability of 3-6 months. Key geopolitical and economic trends suggest more stabilization ahead, providing high reward:risk.


January 23, 2025


First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Forecast

FMF        First Trust Managed Futures Strategy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMF


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.87)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.86)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.85)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (0.85)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMF


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (-0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.02)


PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (0.03)


IAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAC  IAC InterActiveCorp. (0.04)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMF


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (-0.83)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.84)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.87)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.87)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.9)







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