AMPL Forecast


Bullish Case: The bullish case for AMPL stems from potential adoption as a superior unit of account over fiat currencies, driven by sentiments expressed by key influencers. Historical return data suggests significant upside potential, particularly for longer holding periods; higher returns are clustered beyond five years.


Bearish Case: The bearish case centers around prevailing market skepticism and deteriorating investor sentiment, evidenced by increased short interest. Historical return patterns indicate considerable downside risks for shorter holding durations, with frequent negative returns.


Potential Outcomes:

1. AMPL trending upwards with 40% chance as adoption increases.

2. Continued price stagnation at current levels, 35% chance.

3. Short-term panic selling leads to further losses, 25% chance. Each scenario reflects sentiment shifts and market conditions.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a cautiously bullish approach. Deploy bullish debit spreads by purchasing AMPL 01/17/2025 12.50 C calls along with a simultaneous sale of higher-strike calls. Focus on leveraging current low implied volatility to capitalize on potential price recovery in 6-12 months.


July 25, 2024


Amplitude Forecast

AMPL      Amplitude











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BX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BX  Blackstone (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMPL



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