Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Resilient earnings from Tubi's UK launch could drive FOXA towards $50, indicating market recognition of its growth potential. Low implied volatility suggests limited downside, with bullish positioning supported by recent call volume trends.

Bearish Case: Increased competition and restructuring might hinder growth, leading to volatility spikes and potential price drops below $45. High-negativity options indicate market doubt, risking a bearish downturn.

Potential Outcomes:

• Market optimism on Tubi's performance: 40% chance of a price increase to $50.
• Competitive challenges persist: 30% chance of stability around $45.
• Negative market reactions: 30% chance of sharp price declines below $45.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread; buy the $47 call and sell the $48 call expiring in January 2025. This strategy leverages low IV, harnessing potential upside with a risk-to-reward ratio favoring reward. Alternatively, if bearish signs persist, consider credit spreads on $45 puts for limited downside exposure.

November 28, 2024