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GAL Forecast

Bullish Case: The high implied volatility of GAL options suggests increased speculative interest. Given the historical returns, which show a greater likelihood of positive outcomes over long holding periods, a bullish scenario could arise from improving market conditions or geopolitical stability.

Bearish Case: A general decline in implied volatility indicates fading market confidence. Key risks include geopolitical tensions or economic downturns, which historically have correlated with significant price declines, as shown in the tepid historical return projections for both short and long holding periods.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery boosts GAL (40% likelihood).

2. Geopolitical tensions exacerbate, leading to price drop (35% likelihood).

3. Continued price stagnation due to low trading activity (25% likelihood).

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November 15, 2024

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GAL SPDR Global Allocation

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GAL

SPXL Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (0.98)

KKR KKR (0.97)

XLG Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.97)

TT Trane (0.97)

MOD Modine Manufacturing (0.96)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GAL

PTON Peloton Interactive (-0.01)

EWY iShares MSCI South Korea (-0.01)

IVR Invesco Mortgage (-0.01)

S Sprint (-0.02)

URBN Urban Outfitters (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GAL

OCSL Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.88)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.89)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)

JACK Jack In The Box (-0.9)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.