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RSP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: RSP's historical mean-reverting action combined with a lower-than-average implied volatility curve suggests potential for upward retracement. Volume skew towards calls aligns with this outlook.

Bearish Case: Backwardation indicates near-term uncertainties. Historical challenges and mixed sentiment show persistent pressure, adding to downside potential amid macroeconomic concerns.

Potential Outcomes: 50% RSP advances due to bullish volume skew and low volatility. 30% RSP stagnates given mixed current dynamics and uncertainty. 20% RSP declines amid macro pressures.

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February 04, 2025

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