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GEO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: GEO benefits from Trump's immigration policies, boosting demand for detention facilities and increasing revenues. Elevated implied volatility indicates investor anticipation of positive price movement.



Bearish Case: Investor concern over GEO's ethical implications and potential regulatory backlash could limit upside. High volatility suggests risk of swift downturns if political or legal challenges arise.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Policy-driven revenue boost (55% chance)
  • Regulatory backlash restricts growth (25% chance)
  • Market sentiment constrains price (20% chance)



Trading Oracle: Capitalize on contango structure and geopolitical tailwinds with a bullish debit spread: buy GEO March 21 2025 30C and sell 35C. This leverages future volatility spikes and potential policy gains. Expect a 70% likelihood of profit with a 2:1 reward-risk ratio, holding for 1-2 months.


December 26, 2024


Geo Group Forecast

GEO        Geo Group

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Assets that tend to move strongly with GEO


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BAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAC  Bank Of America (0.8)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.8)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GEO


CDLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDLX  Cardlytics (0.0)


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (0.0)


SWBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SWBI  Smith & Wesson Brands (-0.0)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GEO


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.71)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.72)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.72)


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (-0.75)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.77)







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