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GEO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: GEO's recent uptrend and increased call volume suggest strong institutional interest, possibly driven by policy shifts benefiting private prisons.

Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility and historical mean reversion tendencies may limit upside potential despite recent rally.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of mean reversion rally, 30% downside risk due to high volatility, 20% chance of flatlining without clear catalyst.

Trading Oracle: Sell GEO March 21, 2025, 20.00 puts and buy 19.00 puts. Leverage short volatility on mean reversion. 75% probability of profit. Expiry in 46 days. Exploit current high call volume and implied volatility.

February 04, 2025

Geo Group Forecast

GEO Geo Group

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GEO

MIR Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.84)

MAIN Main Street (0.81)

EMR Emerson Electric (0.79)

COF Capital One Financial (0.77)

OWL Blue Owl (0.76)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GEO

ED Consolidated Edison (-0.01)

DV DoubleVerify (0.01)

GL Globe Life (0.02)

ETR Entergy (0.02)

FCX Freeport-McMoRan (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GEO

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)

ABEV Ambev (-0.68)

CNXC Concentrix (-0.69)

VSAT Viasat (-0.7)

BCE BCE (-0.86)

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