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GEO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: GEO's recent uptrend and increased call volume suggest strong institutional interest, possibly driven by policy shifts benefiting private prisons.

Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility and historical mean reversion tendencies may limit upside potential despite recent rally.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of mean reversion rally, 30% downside risk due to high volatility, 20% chance of flatlining without clear catalyst.

Trading Oracle: Sell GEO March 21, 2025, 20.00 puts and buy 19.00 puts. Leverage short volatility on mean reversion. 75% probability of profit. Expiry in 46 days. Exploit current high call volume and implied volatility.

February 04, 2025

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GEO Geo Group

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