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GEO Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong demand for GEO's detention services could spike due to anticipated immigration enforcement, elevating stock prices. Increased call options volume indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting market optimism for moderate price gains.



Bearish Case: Potential backlash against mass deportations may lead to public and political scrutiny, negatively impacting GEO's contracts and stock. High implied volatility reflects uncertainty, indicating a risk of declines if public sentiment shifts.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Mass deportation plans successfully initiated (60%).

2. Political backlash and protests lead to contract losses (25%).

3. Continued bullish sentiment and rising call volumes persist (15%).



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread buying GEO 11/15/2024 27.00 C and selling 30.00 C with a target expiration in 4 days. This leverages current market conditions (61% odds of profit), maximizing potential upside while maintaining defined risk. Plan for volatility spikes around political events; align trade size with overall portfolio exposure.


November 12, 2024


Geo Group Forecast

GEO        Geo Group

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Assets that tend to move strongly with GEO


C Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   C  Citigroup (0.87)


CENX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CENX  Century Aluminum (0.86)


ADVM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADVM  Adverum Biotechnologies (0.86)


DXJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXJ  WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (0.83)


CRBG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRBG  SAFG Retirement Services (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GEO


EQT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQT  EQT (0.0)


PRAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRAA  PRA (0.0)


SNBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNBR  Sleep Number (-0.0)


CYTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYTK  Cytokinetics (0.0)


CPA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPA  Copa (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GEO


MGPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGPI  MGP Ingredients (-0.75)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.75)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.77)


FLGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLGT  Fulgent Genetics (-0.77)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.84)







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