Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: GGAL shows significant long-term growth potential, supported by a bullish AI price forecast of +3.42%. The implied volatility surface indicates rising investor interest in calls, suggesting potential upside with a strong historical price return probability for short holdings across various windows.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, reflecting potential downward pressure. The economic climate in Argentina remains volatile, and recent flat price action could foster further declines, especially if external shocks manifest, impacting investor sentiment negatively.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of moderate bounce driven by improved economic conditions.

2. 30% likelihood of stability as market digests recent volatility.

3. 30% risk of a decline influenced by negative external factors or economic instability.

Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread strategy by buying the $55 call and selling the $60 call, expiring in ~35 days. This approach leverages a strong likelihood of upward price movement, while capturing potential returns of 32% due to solid implied volatility. The plan aims for defined risk and targets a mid-term bullish outlook with a 74% probability of profit.

November 17, 2024