Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Hyatt's expansion plans in Asia and strong loyalty program can drive revenue growth. A positive market sentiment shift could boost stock value. Combined with historical return trends favoring long positions, there's a compelling bullish case.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues and high volatility risk pose significant downside concerns. If market conditions worsen or growth slows, these factors can further pressure the stock price, undermining investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive Q4 earnings surprise (40% chance).
• Resolution of legal issues favoring Hyatt (30% chance).
• Continued downward pressure from lawsuits (20% chance).
• Market sentiment shift due to economic downturn (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Given the current volatility landscape, consider a bullish long-volatility strategy, executing a debit spread on H with a focus on buying the $155 call and selling the $160 call, targeting mid-2025 expirations. This strategy leverages current implied volatility and historical performance, setting up for potential gains as market sentiment adjusts positively.

December 19, 2024